It’s almost time for the momentous occasion of the Charlotte 49ers first basketball game in the Charlotte Bobcats Arena where they will take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Using some statistical analysis of both teams thus far, here is what we’ve got:

In the Pomerory Ratings Wake Forest is rated 111, and Charlotte is rated 180. Looking deeper into the numbers paints a broader picture: Wake relies on good shooting… and poor shooting by their opponents. Also, they rely on their opponents ability to fail to rebound the ball offensively. Looking at the scouting report for WFU we see that they create a lot of turnovers, and their opponents have been very poor FT shooters so far. They are also very good at blocking shots and not getting shots blocked by their offense. Overall, they have a very good defense. But also, taking into consideration their opposition… Charlotte is by far the best team they’ve faced. The offenses and defenses they have played against are among the worst in the country.

Now we’ll look at Charlotte. The main thing that wins or loses a game for Charlotte is the overall FG%. If Charlotte shoots better than their opponent, they can win the game. Also, if the opponent gets to the free throw line more than they do, they will likely lose the game as well. Wake will also be the best opponent that Charlotte has faced. Charlotte gets to the free throw line more than most anyone in the nation and they create a lot of steals. The real weakness of the 49er defense is the 3-pt line. With opponents hitting nearly 51.5% of all attempts. Charlotte is also a very good offensive rebounding team and limits offensive rebound for their opponents. But the 49ers are a very poor shooting team overall.  Shooting only 49.1% on average this year.

Looking at the Saragrin Ratings we can see that with a 4.15 point advantage added to Charlotte, Wake still had a slight edge to the game. So it is too close to call from that standpoint.

So, taking all of the above into account, the keys to the game for Charlotte will be offensive rebounds and limited threes for Wake’s offense. If that happens, Charlotte can definitely pull out the victory. The wild card will be free throws. If the 49ers hit free throws at 70% or above, they will win the game… as the Niners will likely get to the line a lot. If Charlotte falls into the trap of being outhustled for rebounds and fails to hit open shots Wake could run away with it early.

The energy of the crowd for the first uptown game for the Niners will definately have an effect as well.. I think the Niners win it 72-67 but only if they can exploit the weaknesses of the Wake game plan by hitting open shots and free throws. Go Niners!

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